Same as Ever

We should stop trying to predict uncertain events and spend more time understanding timeless behavior.

Naval Ravikant in a recent interview talked about something similar:

“Trying to trend-chase is generally a bad idea… you may get seed round but usually A round, B round dries up. So the thing that is always the best to do is something that you know really well that you have conviction about.”

Trend chasing is a lot like trying to predict uncertain events.

For the most part, both are futile endeavours.

Because the most impactful events and innovations are usually the ones that no one could predict and see coming.

If we could see that coming, by definition, those events/innovations wouldn’t be that impactful, because everyone would try to prepare for it and their risk would diminish dramatically.

So a safe bet is always trying to invest in things that you know will most likely not change in 10, 20, or 100 years from now.

“Predicting what the world will look like fifty years from now is impossible. But predicting that people will still respond to greed, fear, opportunity, exploitation, risk, uncertainty, tribal affiliations, and social persuasion in the same way is a bet I’d take.”

Jeff Bezos in a recent interview with Lex Fridman mentioned something similar:

I’m often asked what’s going to change in the next ten years. “I almost never get the question: What’s not going to change in the next ten years?” he said.

“And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.”

Things that never change are important because you can put so much confidence into knowing how they’ll shape the future.

I always look for timeless wisdom, and this book is another great source that I think will be relevant many decades, if not centuries from today.

Morgan Housel is an outstanding thinker and one of my favorite authors who previously published The Psychology Of Money (another great book) in 2020.

Happy reading! 📙